Administration's Tone Signals a Longer, Broader Iraq Conflict (NYT)

No shit? I'd almost be tempted to ascribe this to, oh, reading the newspaper for once, instead of trusting the same people who started a problem to keep you apprised of its status.

Well, at least we can be grateful for the remarkable feat of infrastructure our administration has pulled off: creating the largest, most sophisticated terrorist training facility in recorded history, complete with daily live-target practice, and capable of handling tens of thousands (maybe more!) of trainees at a time. The price may be a bit high - something in the ballpark of $100B and a few thousand American soldiers' lives, to say nothing of the number of Iraqi civilians caught in the crossfire - but if you really want to create an effective, well-trained and well-equipped enemy, there's just no substitute for a large country, out-of-the-way for us but centrally located for them, with no functioning government and a steady American military presence just large enough to draw fire but nowhere near large enough to actually stabilize things.

Here's a brief bio of Iran's new Defense Minister. In case anyone was wondering what an Ahmadinejad administration was going to look like, or just why the idea of Iran having the bomb is more than a little worrisome, here it is.

Debka report, so take with a grain of salt. The basic gist seems possible, though - there may be an attack inside the US in the next month or so. It's smelling like it.

Watch your collective asses, keep alert to possible threats in your area.

(Hey, it's been a while since I wrote a post or letter like this; I guess that Iraq has been good at drawing fire, if nothing else.)

I spend a lot of time in this blog talking about Middle Eastern politics, often from the perspective of what terrorist group X is up to this week. A conversation with a friend of mine a few days ago reminded me that I'm really not giving enough attention to the (very severe) problems with Israeli activity as well. What's particularly interesting about these is that they're at least somewhat tractable, and many of these can be solved independently of solving the (much less tractable) problems on the Palestinian side.

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I'll close this with a reminder from the Mishnah: The sword comes upon the world for the delay of justice, and for the perversion of justice. If we are complicit in allowing a perversion of justice to continue, we will pay for it in war later, and this cost cannot be averted by any claim of necessity, because injustice creates its own costs no matter why it is perpetrated. If there are things which we can fix, it is morally imperative for us to do so, even if the other side does not fix all that they can first, because our own moral conduct is not ever dependent on the moral conduct of others.

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I just got back from a talk given by a friend of mine who's been out of the country for some time, being a peace activist in the West Bank. Now, those of you who have talked about politics with me know that I'm not exactly the easiest audience for a peace activist, but I left this event quite well-surprised. She gave a talk documenting events she had seen and been involved with while living there, and I found it both interesting and (very unusually for talks like these) without a single point that I would object to.

If some of you have free time this week and are interested in political issues regarding the Middle East, she's giving talks in SF and Berkeley in the next few days, and I'd say this is well worth the time, since it gives both raw data and a perspective you don't hear about much in the US - discussion of daily-life conditions in the territories.

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British investigators now say that the explosives used in the recent train and bus attacks were "military-grade" (i.e., a professional compound, not a fertilizer mix or some similar homebrew) The article includes much speculation on where they might have gotten it from, checking if anything is missing from quarries, and so on.

Nope, I've got no clue where someone could have gotten their hands on several hundred tonspounds of, say, RDX or HMX. I mean, that stuff is carefully guarded all over the world, and terrorists wouldn't just be able to walk in to a military depot and take it...

Edit: (In response to a comment that should probably stay screened) Oh yes, there are definitely far too many ways to get one's hands on that. I'm just amused (morbidly) that everyone seems to have publicly forgotten about huge volumes of missing HE, and is now remembering that about 60lbs total is enough to wreak pretty extraordinary havoc.

Back in one piece. Lots of photos; I'll post those, and some attempt at a coherent narrative, once I'm less jet-lagged.

Also coming up in the future, some notes from the recent trip to Jordan.

However, there have been some very important political developments in the Middle East in the past few days that AFAIK the American press hasn't really picked up on, so they probably bear note here. The short version is that we may be on the near verge of a serious civil war among the Palestinians, and the upcoming Israeli pullout from Gaza may trigger even more complications. Things should be coming to a head over the next two months. Even at the best, the peace process is likely to completely fail in the absence of any central Palestinian "side" which can meaningfully participate in negotiations.

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I'm too tired to write more, but if I don't get this posted now I'll never get around to it. So short version: Israel's pullout from Gaza in two months should lead to a big flare-up; Israeli politics are being pulled far apart by this, and lunatics may try something drastic to prevent progress. Meanwhile, the Palestinians are sliding uncomfortably towards a civil war, and Gaza is still separating out into Hezbollah control and Iranian influence. Expect lots of "excitement" starting in about one month, give or take.

How serious is it? Well, we'll find out soon. The situation on the Palestinian side is damned serious, because it means that peace is basically out of the question for the foreseeable future, on the scale of decades or more barring unforeseen circumstances. But Israel is working towards decoupling itself as much as possible from this. If things go on the good side, Israel could remain a decent place to live, but the PA is going to degrade quickly, and not because of anything Israel is doing.

(I've got some notes on possible projections, but I'm far too tired to edit those into postable shape - damned jet lag)

The desert and Petra were amazing. Stories and pictures to follow, at some point when I'm more conscious. Lots of Bedouins, lots of sand, lots of steep mountains, good tea. Plus some notes on the country.

So say a coalition of Jerusalem's religious leaders, in a rare show of unity.

The US military has decided not to prosecute 17 soldiers in charges related to 28 prisoner deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan, against the recommendations of military investigators. Now, some little gems from this:

In one case, an Iraqi LCOL was killed in custody at a US base in Al Asad, principally as a result of blunt trauma and asphyxia from being lifted to his feet by a baton held to his throat. Special Forces Command determined that this force was lawful "in response to repeated aggression and misconduct by the detainee."

An Army Special Forces case that was dropped involved the shooting death of a prisoner in Afghanistan, dropped because "the soldier involved was not well-informed of the rules of engagement." (I am certain there is some sort of confusion that might make a soldier believe that the shooting death of a prisoner, whom I presume was not armed, was within RoE. I'm not sure what this confusion might be, but I'm sure there's a really good explanation here)

But apparently things are OK, according to Army spokesman Lt. Col. Jeremy Martin: Apparently the prisoners who died represent only a tiny fraction of the 70,000 detainees held by American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Well, that makes me feel better.

So it looks like the unsurprising is happening: Rather than risk a blow to morale from actually prosecuting soldiers for criminal offenses ranging from dereliction of duty to murder, this one is going to get papered over, all the way down to the people on the ground. The officers responsible for these incidents, of course, aren't even being mentioned - and, I'm suspecting, are in line for promotions.

Not good, guys; I appreciate the need to get information as much as anybody else, but this is a pervasive climate of torture and murder. The signal that this is OK so long as it's for a good reason is not an acceptable one to be giving to our enlisted personnel and our officers - and even less so to our enemies, who are watching this case with great interest.