I don't know why this article hasn't been more widely noticed. Nir Rosen, a journalist for the NYTimes who is fluent in Arabic, went to Jordan and interviewed jihadis past and present, visited mosques, and generally brought back a vivid and interesting picture of what is going on there. It adds a lot of context to Israeli Gen. Naveh's recent undiplomatic remarks about the danger to the present regime in Jordan, as well as giving a good picture of where the major players in Iraq today are coming from.

(The article doesn't explain all the names as well as some articles do, though, so you may want to pop over to Wikipedia occasionally while reading it.)

( RelatedCollapse )

Anyway, this suddenly much-deeper rift (after Wednesday) between Sunnis and Shi'ites is as big a deal as the Hamas victory a few weeks ago was. Middle East politics is reshaping itself Right Now; everything could change course at the drop of a (probably bomb-laden) hat. Keep your eyes on the news. (And updates from here will continue)

Just got back from seeing "Munich." The film was quite good, and a lot more apolitical than I expected. Even though it's about a specific historical event and its aftermath, after a while it becomes clear that the original event was almost incidental to the real story; the film itself is about moral choices, and what wars do to the people who fight them. The choice of original event (the kidnapping and murder of the Israeli olympic team in 1972 by Palestinian terrorists) seems to be more to give a clear simplicity to the beginning, and it makes the contrast with the progressing murkiness all the more relevant.

So if you've been avoiding this movie because it's too political, don't worry - it's not. It's a bit on the heavy side, but worth a watch.

Hmm. After hearing about this on the radio today, I figure it's time for some ( background on the Hamas victoryCollapse )

Murder at the Indonesian Consulate; this has the makings of a hell of a story, whatever was behind it.

And Condi Rice admits that the U.S. underestimated the political strength of Hamas.

"I've asked why nobody saw it coming," Ms. Rice said, speaking of her own staff. "It does say something about us not having a good enough pulse."

Nobody saw it coming? Has someone removed the brains of the entire State Department and replaced them with Folger's Crystals? A blind man could have seen that. A golem could have told you what popular sentiment in the West Bank, to say nothing of Gaza, was like. What the hell is going on up there?

Also: Good editorial summary of the choices we need to make with regards to Iran's nuclear program. Very clear summary of the situation.

Something important has happened in the Middle East: a terrorist organization, wholly unrepentant in its aims and bloody methods, has been elected as a government in a free election. Hamas has vowed to continue, turning its armed wing into a national army and, in effect, turning its campaign of mayhem into a formal war.
( Reasons why this is importantCollapse )

Ariel Sharon just had a major stroke. Power transferred to Vice Premier Olmert; what this means for the coming elections, I have no idea.

This scares me. Sharon had become the person with enough moral weight to push forward a real plan for the future. And he seemed to have one. I don't believe that any of the other people in this party could hold it together enough to really make things work - to win a strong plurality and push forward an actual something that could lead to peace. I feel like it's 1995 again, when Rabin was assassinated and we all suddenly realized that our hopes were in the hands of a single all-too-mortal person. I just never thought I would be thinking that about Sharon.

God help him, and help us all.

Let me present Susblood Labs, which is manufacturing a combination pen and capsule of preserved pig's blood, designed to reconstitute in the heat of a suicide bomb and defile the body of the bomber. Apparently this is meant to act as a deterrent to bombers, by keeping them out of heaven.

(I could talk about the basic physics and theology problems with this, but why bother? There's something delightfully mad about the whole thing.)

EDIT: But wait! There's more! From the Middle East Media Research Institute, a translation of a fascinating contest showing up on some Islamist websites. Help design a website for a terror group, and get to fire missiles at American troops!

(You know, I really wish I were kidding. It could be that both of these things are bogus... but somehow, I doubt it. The first one, in particular, just seems so appropriate to the mindset that if it's satire, it's the most brilliant bloody satire I've seen in a while. The latter... well, all sorts of strange things show up on the public fora of terror groups. Most of them are nonsense. But such splendid nonsense! For that one, I think the best commentary came from Dry Bones.)

It's been a while since I wrote a detailed political post, and what with it being a relatively calm time in the news, I figured it might be a good time to pull out the political crystal ball and try to make some projections for things to come, and things to watch out for. I'll be keeping this one focused on international politics, especially the Middle East; (since that's where I actually know enough to have something useful to say) and so this post should be taken as analysis, sometimes conjecture, and sometimes opinion, rather than as a record of fact.

As usual, comments and discussion are welcomed!

( Eenie meenie, jelly beanie, the spirits are about to speak!Collapse )

US to detail who paid bribes in Iraq oil sales: This is actually a pretty interesting report that's about to come out. If you wondered why France was so opposed to the Iraq war, it has everything to do with what's going to come out in this document, and very little to do with them having an opinion, or really even caring, about the wisdom of the war itself. (I've been waiting for this one for a little while - it's interesting stuff. And I can promise you that major French companies don't engage in this sort of large-scale operation without the full knowledge and consent of the government)

President Ahmadinejad of Iran calls for anihilation of Israel: Just in case anyone forgot during the past couple of years, Iran - specifically its hard-liner government, which is back in full control after the last election - is not your friend. In fact, it's safe to say that this government considers itself to be your enemy, and would quite happily kill you if it got a chance. (That's "you" referring to anyone living in the US, Israel, and probably the UK. Well, and several other places, too.)

Oh yes, and they have intermediate-range ballistic missiles and are working on nuclear weapons.

(Coming soon: A more detailed Middle-East Roundup which I started writing on the flight home. There's a lot to say right now)