( It"s my day off, I wanted to think about something other than computers for a bit...Collapse )
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The Independent is reporting that a new report indicates that polar ice melting may have just passed the critical point. I think this is something worth taking very seriously: I've been expecting a report that says this for a few years. Note that this may trigger a very large-scale change soon, such as a shutdown or other significant change in the Gulf Stream thanks to the change in thermal absorption due to having fresh instead of saltwater in the northern Atlantic.

Apart from being an interesting article, This starts off with one of the best metaphors I've seen in a long time.

In an op-ed piece in the New York Times, Kathleen Sullivan suggests some questions to ask Judge Roberts at his confirmation hearing. These seem like very good questions; I would be especially interested to hear his answers to the third. (Four other people also contributed questions, but those seem substantially less relevant to me)

One question about which I would love to see Judge Roberts' reasoning would be, To what extent do individuals have the right to make their own medical decisions, and why? Unfortunately this would be an inappropriate confirmation question; any of the germane subquestions would be far too likely to have direct bearing on cases that could come before the court in the future. But his thinking on this matter would be (IMHO) very illuminating: this is closely associated with the question of the rights of individuals when they do not have any obvious conflict with the rights of other individuals or the duties of the state, and therefore of his broader approach to questions such as privacy. Sullivan's third question broaches this indirectly, though, so it may answer the matter well enough.

The people still in New Orleans are there because they want to be there. Fortunately, our brave New Orleans superintendent of police will "save them from themselves" and their own, selfish desire to stay in the city.

Here's a brief bio of Iran's new Defense Minister. In case anyone was wondering what an Ahmadinejad administration was going to look like, or just why the idea of Iran having the bomb is more than a little worrisome, here it is.

Pat Robertson apologized for calling for the assassination of Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez today, but claims he was "misinterpreted" by the press:

"I said our special forces should 'take him out.' 'Take him out' could be a number of things, including kidnapping."

Debka report, so take with a grain of salt. The basic gist seems possible, though - there may be an attack inside the US in the next month or so. It's smelling like it.

Watch your collective asses, keep alert to possible threats in your area.

(Hey, it's been a while since I wrote a post or letter like this; I guess that Iraq has been good at drawing fire, if nothing else.)

Sometime in the past month, there seems to have been a shift of sentiment in our government, and it's finally become allowable to admit certain things, like the fact that the war in Iraq was an ill-conceived operation, based on entirely unrealistic ideas, and has ended in almost total failure. Of course, this doesn't quite reach to the highest levels - Bush still makes speeches saying things like "Iraqis are taking control of their country, building a free nation that can govern itself, sustain itself and defend itself. And we're helping Iraqis succeed" - but there's a remarkable willingness of officials involved to finally admit that we're leaving in the foreseeable future, having achieved little or nothing of the lofty goals which were touted at the start of the war. This article from the Washington Post is a good example; lots of quotes from various people, mostly speaking on background but unusually candid.

At the same time, there's no conjoint movement to cut back on the encroachments into American civil rights over the past few years, nor do I expect there to be one so long as this administration continues; people have come to expect continuous surveillance, background/credit/affiliations being easily investigated, in cases tagged as "relevant to national security" things like the detention of people without any of the protections we would normally expect in civil society. Recent more subtle changes seem to assist that; for instance, US cell phones are now required to transmit GPS locations (for emergency services, of course...), and Nokia's latest mobile services API makes it possible to write server-side applications that use that location information - without any software being installed on the cell phone. (Nokia isn't the only one, of course; that's just the first example I found to hand) I'll let the technically minded among you imagine a couple of uses for that; it's sort of a fun exercise, if you think about it as though you were a police officer, a private investigator, a marketer, or simply an armed robber.

If an unattended maiden could be dis-missed...

I spend a lot of time in this blog talking about Middle Eastern politics, often from the perspective of what terrorist group X is up to this week. A conversation with a friend of mine a few days ago reminded me that I'm really not giving enough attention to the (very severe) problems with Israeli activity as well. What's particularly interesting about these is that they're at least somewhat tractable, and many of these can be solved independently of solving the (much less tractable) problems on the Palestinian side.

( ProblemsCollapse )

I'll close this with a reminder from the Mishnah: The sword comes upon the world for the delay of justice, and for the perversion of justice. If we are complicit in allowing a perversion of justice to continue, we will pay for it in war later, and this cost cannot be averted by any claim of necessity, because injustice creates its own costs no matter why it is perpetrated. If there are things which we can fix, it is morally imperative for us to do so, even if the other side does not fix all that they can first, because our own moral conduct is not ever dependent on the moral conduct of others.

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Apparently, our President wants equal time for intelligent design in American schools, saying that "both sides ought to be properly taught" so "people can understand what the debate is about."

It's probably not really worth too much discussion in this forum, but it's fascinating to see how this culture of false debate has emerged. If a public figure were to go out and say that the sky is green, the press would simply report it, and then ask someone else what color they say the sky is, satisfied that by presenting "both sides" of the issue they've discharged their duty, and (seeing that there are clearly two sides who disagree) now being able to describe it as a disputed issue. What you won't hear is the press actually checking the facts themselves; such things are "not their department." This is especially true when there are a large number of people who, for one reason or another, feel strongly about backing whomever it was who made the false statement; the media are really averse to flat-out contradicting someone when that may alienate readers.

But if a political movement grows, and out of fear of contradicting them nobody ever says they're wrong, where do we end up?

The rather simple problem with the "debate" over the teaching of evolution, which nobody ever seems quite willing to say, is that the reason we don't teach "intelligent design" or other forms of ersatz creationism in school isn't because there's a secular humanist bias, or because we don't want to favor one religion over another; it's for the rather simple reason that these things are false, and known to be false. The fact that one group strenuously advocates for them doesn't make them any more true, and no matter how loud these groups are, the fact that people are out there saying something does not make it true, nor does it make the debate legitimate or worth people's time; if a thousand people claim the sky is green, even by divine revelation, the sky will still be blue, and trying to convince them will still be an elaborate waste of time.

Or to say this in a more religious context, we are given senses and a faculty of reason, and we do not derive our laws and our sense of the universe from omens and signs. As R. Jeremia said, the Torah has already been given at Sinai; that is, the set of divine interventions needed to create this world was done at the creation of the world, and so the world is complete within its own context: we can study it in its own right, without having to resort to revelations "explaining" for us things which our own senses can understand on their own. (Baba Metzia, 59a-b) (Yes, I realize that making a religious argument in this context seems odd, but I don't believe there's any fundamental contradiction between religion and reason; only when people start misunderstanding the difference between stories and the world around them, to the extent that they reject the evidence of their own senses.)

And now, our president has decided that he needs to weigh in on this issue, because without his wisdom and guidance, where would we be?

I just got back from a talk given by a friend of mine who's been out of the country for some time, being a peace activist in the West Bank. Now, those of you who have talked about politics with me know that I'm not exactly the easiest audience for a peace activist, but I left this event quite well-surprised. She gave a talk documenting events she had seen and been involved with while living there, and I found it both interesting and (very unusually for talks like these) without a single point that I would object to.

If some of you have free time this week and are interested in political issues regarding the Middle East, she's giving talks in SF and Berkeley in the next few days, and I'd say this is well worth the time, since it gives both raw data and a perspective you don't hear about much in the US - discussion of daily-life conditions in the territories.

( Location information, in case you"re interestedCollapse )

It's a bit concerning, on the tail end of a multi-week reading binge that's left a huge heap of books by the side of my bed, to start another one and have it warn me in the prologue that it was too much reading and not enough sleep that drove the protagonist mad.

Brought on by too much work, this rather interesting essay, and who knows what else, it occurred to me that D20 Modern is far too alone among games. We could have a D20 Postmodern, where the players as a group transform ("the death of the author") the sequence of ordinary events described by the GM into a narrative arc by imposing the world-view of "adventurers;" D20 Epic, where the ultimate ending is written in advance and known, like the laws of the gods, to all the characters, who must then live their lives knowing what the ultimate ending will be; and similarly D20 Tragedy, Comedy, Picaresque Romance, and so on.

We all play these games, of course, but it would still be amusing to form up a list of them all, and see if conversely there are some characteristic modes of RPG's which could be translated into unusual modes for other forms of storytelling.

(Hmm... is it just me, or does D20 Modern seem tailor-made for a game based on Gravity's Rainbow?)

And yes, I realize this is elaborate nonsense. What can I say, I'm sleep-deprived...

British investigators now say that the explosives used in the recent train and bus attacks were "military-grade" (i.e., a professional compound, not a fertilizer mix or some similar homebrew) The article includes much speculation on where they might have gotten it from, checking if anything is missing from quarries, and so on.

Nope, I've got no clue where someone could have gotten their hands on several hundred tonspounds of, say, RDX or HMX. I mean, that stuff is carefully guarded all over the world, and terrorists wouldn't just be able to walk in to a military depot and take it...

Edit: (In response to a comment that should probably stay screened) Oh yes, there are definitely far too many ways to get one's hands on that. I'm just amused (morbidly) that everyone seems to have publicly forgotten about huge volumes of missing HE, and is now remembering that about 60lbs total is enough to wreak pretty extraordinary havoc.

Looks like Newsweek just came out with their article about the source in the Valerie Plame case, based on what Time magazine decided to hand over to prosecutors. And the finger goes on - Karl Rove himself.

This is interesting; while I'm not even slightly surprised that he was the man behind it, it's very unusual for someone so highly placed to directly involve himself in this sort of business. The style is a bit unusual in recent years, too - it essentially amounts to the use of government power (in this case knowledge of people's secrets) to directly attack political opponents of the administration.

The legal issue is the Intelligence Identities Protection Act, which makes the knowing revelation of an undercover agent's identity a felony; given the high profile of this investigation so far, it's going to be increasingly difficult for the Justice Department to avoid making at least some prosecutions in this case. There will probably be some conflict between the actual prosecutors and the AG's office in this case, with the AG not wanting to prosecute anyone too high-profile (remember that Rove is a friend of Gonzales) but the prosecutor not wanting to drop a public case. Media impact will probably have a strong effect on this - if Rove's picture is in front of a lot of newspapers with questions like "what did he know?," it probably will go to trial, but if the newspapers wait for Fox News to take it first, the odds are that enough false rumors will start circulating (e.g. that Cooper's e-mails were hoaxes) that no prosecution, or other adverse consequences, will actually happen.

If this does concern you, get in touch with your local papers, television stations, and so on, and ask them for more coverage of the story. If they know that their readers are interested, they'll push the matter.

Copied from sirreality -- a good way to kill some time on a Thursday evening.

Rules
1. Put your playlist on shuffle.
2. Post the first lines to the first 25 songs to come up (along with these instructions).
3. Have people guess the songs and artists in comments to the post.
4. Post the answers to the ones people guessed correctly. A couple of days later, post the first two lines of the ones no one got and get people to guess again.
5. Repeat, adding the next line to the unguessed songs each time, until they're all guessed/you've posted the whole song/you've gotten bored/no-one's going to get the damn thing if you don't tell them.

For sanity's sake, I'm deleting anything with the title in the first line, as well as anything in a language I can't easily type at this keyboard. So there's a bit of artist clustering.

( My code debugging mix, be warnedCollapse )

Back in one piece. Lots of photos; I'll post those, and some attempt at a coherent narrative, once I'm less jet-lagged.

Also coming up in the future, some notes from the recent trip to Jordan.

However, there have been some very important political developments in the Middle East in the past few days that AFAIK the American press hasn't really picked up on, so they probably bear note here. The short version is that we may be on the near verge of a serious civil war among the Palestinians, and the upcoming Israeli pullout from Gaza may trigger even more complications. Things should be coming to a head over the next two months. Even at the best, the peace process is likely to completely fail in the absence of any central Palestinian "side" which can meaningfully participate in negotiations.

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I'm too tired to write more, but if I don't get this posted now I'll never get around to it. So short version: Israel's pullout from Gaza in two months should lead to a big flare-up; Israeli politics are being pulled far apart by this, and lunatics may try something drastic to prevent progress. Meanwhile, the Palestinians are sliding uncomfortably towards a civil war, and Gaza is still separating out into Hezbollah control and Iranian influence. Expect lots of "excitement" starting in about one month, give or take.

How serious is it? Well, we'll find out soon. The situation on the Palestinian side is damned serious, because it means that peace is basically out of the question for the foreseeable future, on the scale of decades or more barring unforeseen circumstances. But Israel is working towards decoupling itself as much as possible from this. If things go on the good side, Israel could remain a decent place to live, but the PA is going to degrade quickly, and not because of anything Israel is doing.

(I've got some notes on possible projections, but I'm far too tired to edit those into postable shape - damned jet lag)

The desert and Petra were amazing. Stories and pictures to follow, at some point when I'm more conscious. Lots of Bedouins, lots of sand, lots of steep mountains, good tea. Plus some notes on the country.

(Copied from kamileon, because it looked interesting...)

1) Total number of books owned: Probably around 1000. Haven't done a detailed inventory. One wall of my bedroom, one bookcase in my study, one wall bookcase in my living room, plus the stacks of books... well... everywhere.

2) Last book bought: A stack of books prior to the upcoming trip. The Autumn of the Patriarch (Gabriel Garcia Marquez), Post Captain (Patrick O'Brian), Their Eyes Were Watching God (Zora Neale Hurston), Why is Sex Fun? (Jared Diamond), The Feynman Lectures on Computing (Richard Feynman), MirrorMask (Script by Neil Gaiman and Dave McKean).

3) Last book read: Just finished re-reading To Say Nothing of the Dog (Connie Willis); also somewhat enmeshed in Statistical Field Theory, v. 2 by Itzykson and Douffe, but that's just trying to load key bits into my head before the trip.

4) 5 Fiction books that mean a lot to me: (Not a "5 best" or anything, just books that have had a strong influence on me)
1. Neil Gaiman: The Sandman
2. Jorge Luis Borges: Dreamtigers
3. Frank Herbert: Dune
4. Robert Heinlein: (Miscellaneous)
5. Umberto Eco: The Name of the Rose (Not for the story so much as for introducing me to Medieval history...)

5) Five more fiction books I really like:
1. Gabriel Garcia Marquez, everything.
2. Connie Willis, To Say Nothing of the Dog (Damned if I know why I like it so much, but I do)
3. Umberto Eco, Foucault's Pendulum
4. David Foster Wallace, Infinite Jest
5. A lot of the rest are short stories - The Science Fiction Hall of Fame, v. 1 sticks out in my mind as an anthology.

6) Five non-fiction books that mean a lot to me: (What can I say, these are still books I curl up with when I'm tired...)
1. Green, Schwarz and Witten, Introduction to Superstring Theory
2. N. E. Wegge-Olsen, K-theory and C*-algebras: A Friendly Approach
3. C. von Westenholz, Differential Forms with Applications to the Physical Sciences
4. J. J. Sakurai, Modern Quantum Mechanics
5. Peskin & Schroeder, Introduction to Quantum Field Theory

6') Five non-technical non-fiction books that mean a lot to me:
1. Peter Brown, more or less everything.
2. J. Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel
3. Various authors, the Mishnah
4. R. Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb
5. R. P. Feynman, The Feynman Lectures in Physics (Well... it's no more technical than the Mishnah)

7) Five books that had an impact on me, which I haven't read since I was a teenager:
1. Robert Shea and R. A. Wilson, Illuminatus!
2. ...actually, this category is more or less empty, since I've been re-reading a lot of the books that had an impact on me, so they end up falling in category 4 instead of 7.

Any news article that includes a discussion of the "Society for Mutual Autopsy" is just begging to be made into a plot for something, somewhere.

I'm remembering why I deeply loathe having Windows boxen in the house.

OK, question for those of you familiar with this sort of thing: I've got a box that was, until recently, in use as a DVD player, media station, etc. Apparently in the very recent past, nVidia, as a result of pressure from Macrovision, pushed a new version of the video driver which completely breaks DVD output, causing any attempt to play a DVD to fail with a copy-protection error. Searching a bit on the net found this out - they didn't bother to call anyone's attention to the fact, and they just pushed the drivers as part of their automatic updates. It simply requires that one roll back to the 40.72 version.

Unfortunately, doing this seems to have failed utterly; despite the installer claiming to have succeeded, Windows does not believe that there is any driver at all, and the DVD problem is persisting.

Does anyone know a solution to this short of nuke & pave? Or alternately, would anyone like to buy a nice little Shuttle box with a 2GHz Athlon and a gig of RAM, so I can replace it with a Mac mini?

My only excuse for this is that I was reading the Heimskringla while really, really sleep-deprived, and woke up with this in my head.

( Pray to St. Olaf!Collapse )