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Sunday, March 7th, 2004

Time Event
2:28p
Gay marriage
An interesting editorial by Jonathan Rauch on the subject of gay marriage.
3:25p
Who's next?
Secretary-general Hassan Rohani of Iran's National Security Council (a group affiliated with the ayatollahs rather than the reformers, for those of you keeping score) issued a statement urging the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to end its investigation and "accept Iran's membership of the atomic club."

His statement further explained that Iran's nuclear program is purely aimed at civilian nuclear power, and their advanced centrifuges and the discovery of 80% enriched Uranium by IAEA inspectors* was ignored.

English translation: Iran's nuclear program is farther along than most estimates, especially after their little deal with North Korea (and thus indirectly, Pakistan) to trade workspace for technology; they're not confident in having a bomb testable within a year, though, so they want to institute some medium- to long-term delays for the IAEA. (Rather than the more direct obstreprious stonewalling that they would use if they just wanted to keep the IAEA busy for a few more months)

But their technology is good, so expect to see Iran enter the nuclear club (barring unforeseen circumstances, which is a hell of a "barring") somtime between now and 2007. The ayatollahs would like that to be earlier, the reformers could work with either early or late. Iranian internal politics may have an order-1 effect on all of this.

Just remember, kids - nuclear weapons don't kill people, people kill people. Erm. With nuclear weapons.
3:46p
Conjecture
The porn business is high-margin low-volume, very competitive and has a low turnaround time. This forces it to be extremely responsive to even subtle undercurrents in the mood of its customer base.

Conjecture: The set of popular textual advertisement themes for porn (e.g. subject lines of porn spam) undergoes systematic collective fluctuations. (New popular themes arise and disappear) These fluctuations contain a nontrivial signal about the current zeitgeist among the primary target audience (suitably subsection the audience if there is enough breadth in the market to justify so doing) and could be usefully mined for a lot of interesting information about what's going on in the country. Its fast response time makes it particularly interesting.

This could be a better signal than e.g. tabloid covers, since while they have similar fluctuation patterns, they seem to have settled down into a fairly constant set of themes that doesn't fluctuate nearly as broadly as porn.

Opinions?

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