Yonatan Zunger (zunger) wrote,
Yonatan Zunger
zunger

When you hear Gen. Petraeus' report...

Those "positive statistics" you hear from him seem to be an excellent case of how to manipulate data. Here's a nice article from the Washington Post summarizing the issue. For example, the report is touting the reduction in sectarian violence, but
Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. "If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian," the official said. "If it went through the front, it's criminal."
Ilan Goldenberg summarized it nicely:
"So to recap. The violence numbers do not include: 1) Sunni on Sunni violence. 2) Shi'a on Shi'a violence 3) Car bombs 4) Getting shot in the front of the head."
General Petraeus was chosen for this job in no small part so that he would be the one giving this testimony to Congress; and he was chosen for that because he's widely respected. But him coming before Congress, not reporting on his own professional judgement but on that judgement as modified to accord with administration goals, is a farce.

On the other hand, Adm. William Fallon (commander of CENTCOM) recently spoke at the Commonwealth Club and gave a very interesting talk about his own background and how he sees the present situation in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa. I must say that he's impressed me a great deal of late; his presence in CENTCOM strikes me as some of the best news coming out of that part of the world these days.
Tags: middle east
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  • 4 comments
As usual, you provide a lot of great information.
Thanks; glad you're enjoying it.